Advertisers, Executives and Lawyers look #in to promise of Predictive Analytics

Advertisers, executives and now eDiscovery lawyers attracted to the promise that predictive analytics will help them influence the future would learn much more by studying the link between Chanel No5 and predictive analytics tools.  

Let’s start with Predictive Analytics and get to Chanel later.

Predictive Analytics

Predictive analytics is an outcome delivered by the application of tools and techniques that provide insight today to what might happen tomorrow, much like the gypsy in a tent.

The attraction of predictive analytics story to executives is quite high as it promises to ease their struggle to align future products to constantly changing customer needs.  Indeed Predictive Analytics may also be seen as a relief to leaders of E-Discovery teams as they search for numbers and stories embedded in huge data pools to help them prevail in their stewardship of typically high cost, low value eDiscovery projects.

Let’s now look into the core of Predictive Analytics — numbers, stories and scenarios to understand its value.

Shell Scenarios, Stories and Sufi

Pierre Wack, a Shell employee and Sufi, raised the practice of Scenario Analysis honed at Rand for the US military to a high commerical art.  Pierre Wack future-proofed Shell and used Scenario Analysis to help lift Shell from a third tier oil company to a global energy giant.

Numbers & Stories Predict Future Events

As a fully recovered accountant I learned to use stories to magnify the value of analytics as I delivered services with Microsoft, Cognos, Business Objects or other technologies to global corporations.

Currently we use these tools to accelerate or magnify the value of predictive analytics projects; 

A. ‘Story or Perspective Lens’  —  Story | Process | Software or Idea | Brand | Numbers or KPIs

  1. A story aligns People, Content & Purpose
  2. Tell a story twice and it becomes a Process.
  3. Tell a story three times and Software is made.
  4. Tell a story four times and you create a Brand value.
  5. Tell a story five times and accountants craft KPI measures.

With a little practice, almost anyone can point a Perspective Lens to a corporate value chain and receive some insight to what is happening today and what is likely to happen in the next 6 to 12 months.

Two simple tools to magnify the value of a story lens:

B. Personae–build key personae with a focus on behaviours
C. Scenarios–gather stories at the core of financial forecasts across a corporate value chain

Predictive Analytics, Personae & Scenarios

1. Identify the Personae across a corporation’s global value chain and use Predictive Analytics to determine how their behaviours may change over the next 6 to 12 months.

2. Target and understand the relationships of key stories embedded in the corporation’s financial forecast.

3. Modify some original stories according to anticipated changes in Persona behaviours or add new stories to reflect unforeseen events such as Barrack Obama being elected as the next US President.

4. Label the first story cluster Scenario1 and the new cluster of stories Scenario2.

5. Use measures to determine which Scenario is active and pre-plan reponses accordingly.

Scenarios & Future-Proofing 

Future-proofing is a concept that uses scenarios to avoid disaster or exploit opportunities in the future.

Consider how you would manage and align the business if the world unfolds according to the stories in Scenario1 or what might be done if the world unfolds according the Scenario2 Predictive Analytics, Perspective Lenses, Personae and Scenario analysis help us deal with the future now.

Chanel No5, Stories and Numbers

All storytellers intuitively understand that numbers and stories are complementary and as a storyteller I must point out that at one time stories and numbers were one and indeed even today a number evokes many stories–the numbers 7 or 4 in the Chinese culture or even the number 5 in our own.

Africa and Predictive Analytics

In the Yoruba tradition of Nigeria the deity of love, sexuality and finance is OSHUN and her number is 5.

Coco Chanel must have known about the mythical connection or was extremely lucky to have named her iconic scent No5 though either way the connection of stories and numbers is important.

Numbers, Stories and Behaviours

Studying Jung’s protégé  Marie-Louise von Franz offers researchers more resources in the exploration of the links between numbers and stories though I suggest starting with;

On Divination and Synchronicity: The Psychology of Meaningful Chance 

Originally Presented As Lectures at the C.G. Jung Institute, Zurich

(Studies in Jungian Psychology) (Paperback)

by Marie-Louise von Franz

Storytellers

Stories are the core of what we are and what we do, and for those with an unclear understanding of the expertise offered by a storyteller, allow me offer this view—Storytellers perceive by measuring differently and have the ability to magnify any Predictive Analytics effort. 

Five levels of storytellers expertise;

  • Hear a story
  • Repeat a story
  • Tune a story
  • Create a story
  • Live a story

Join us to explore the application of Predictive Analytics to Advertising or E-Discovery.

Cheers,
Nick
nick@scenario2.com @SpeedSynch @eDiscovery_@ResonantView

2010 Predictions and Observations that will Resonate #IN 2011 @SpeedSynch

These 2010 Predictions and Observations that will Resonate #IN 2011 have been posted on @SpeedSynch or WordPress blogs. 

Cheers,

Nick @SpeedSynch  nick@scenario2.com

Spam, Social Media and the future of Search 

Search engines and the advertisers they serve have a big problem with Social Media; they can’t shape its content and appear to have innovated beyond spam and PR with the follower.

  

The future of internet marketing and search is the follower.

  

Social Media and the Follower

 

The follower is like a heat seeking missile that follows targeted people in social media–usually ‘influencers’ because social media bloggers, influential or not, have become immune to subtle efforts of advertisers to promote their products or generate content to attract people that like content generated by specific bloggers.

 

It seems that once a blogger is identified as being influential or a blog as a gathering space for bloggers of influence one or more followers are dispatched to blogs to offer content that interjects the stories important to their patrons, the advertisers.  This is natural and easy as blogs are content generation engines.

 

Avoid Social Graphs and Super Bloggers

 

In my experience the real value of the ‘super blogger’ is directly related to sending your content out and others re-sending or posting, just like a chain letter.

This is done with the hope of boosting search engine visibility–leads and sales are a bonus, but not the main objective.

 

It’s not a popular view, but I would think that if you had the time to find the most influential bloggers you would be at the back of a long line and when you get to the front of the line, you would be disappointed with the result.

 

However, if you must take this path, think about these questions;

  1. Do they reach your prospective customers or markets?
  2. Can or will they help you and at what cost, $ or time?
  3. What is the desired outcome from engaging the super bloggers?
  4. Can they understand your products or customers or markets?
  5. Will they just re-send your story or modify it for their own purpose?

 

Good luck with it and it’s always better to talk to someone you can serve with your content or product rather than an agent.

 

The Biggest Social Media Success Stories

 

Social Media is a hunk of software and software is created for two reasons; 

  • Compliance
  •  Speed up processes

Success of software tools depends on if it fits the need of the person typing and the person reading what that person typed so the ‘biggest’ stories will be about how many millions of people signed up to a website so they could do something faster (Twitter) or that the website they use is ‘trusted’ (LinkedIN) or just plain old fun but a privacy nightmare that sells as much information as dumb users will enter (Facebook).

 

Don’t Invest Time or Money in SEO

 

SEO is about giving Google money and there are other options, either way you need to do this; 

  • Understand keyword themes of the reasons your customers buy
  •  Analyze keywords used by your competitors

Options–Establish presence where Search Engine Spiders don’t matter–

  • Find blogs or social media sites favoured by your customers
  • Go to blogs that use competitor’s clients
  • Pay per click, no fuss, saves time.

Search has moved past 90% of SEO experts with Google’s purchase of Metaweb last month so all the time you spend figuring out how to do SEO will be much better spent with your family.

 

The Tweet below is an answer to a question rather than an observation or prediction.

 

Explain Social Media Authenticity in a Tweet “Any words used in similar spaces share meaning.”

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